DEMO2010 POPULATION CHANGE IN LOW & MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
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EXERCISE 1. Semester 1 2024/25
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You should answer all parts of the questions for your DEMO2010 coursework.
Demographic transitions describe the pattern of population changes from high mortality and fertility to substantially lower levels. As discussed in this module, the declines in mortality and fertility may differ between countries in terms of levels, timing, rate, and consistency. Countries with similar contemporary demographic and health indicators may have experienced distinctive population changes (trajectories) (Dyson, 2010).
In this exercise, you are asked to investigate and discuss population change with specific reference to two countries a) Chad and b) Cambodia. In 2024, the two land-locked countries have similar population sizes - Chad (18.8 million) and Cambodia (17.1 million) (UNFPA, 2024a,b). The United Nations classify them as Least Developed Countries based on their indicators of socioeconomic development. In this exercise, you will build on the knowledge you gained in the first half of the module about demographic transition processes and determinants. The period of interest for this coursework is restricted to the years from the 1970s to the 2020s.
Question 1. Mortality declines.
Q1.a Using relevant mortality data, describe and compare the overall mortality levels, trends and patterns in Chad and Cambodia in this period. [6]
Q1.b Discuss in further detail the changes in mortality in the two countries. What factors have contributed to marked changes in overall mortality? Are there changes in the leading causes of death in the period? Has mortality change been different in specific demographic or population sub-groups? [14]
In answering question 1, include one or more figure(s) in your answer (e.g. graphs or tables) that present relevant demographic data on mortality indicator(s). (See the guidance below**)
Question 2. Fertility transition
Q2.a Describe the fertility transitions in Chad and Cambodia in the period, noting any substantial differences in the trends or timing of fertility declines [6]
Q2.b In writing about education and fertility trends in mid-transitional countries, the demographer John Cleland comments: ‘Of all the indicators of socio-economic status, schooling has been most widely used by demographers. Education of adults persistently emerges as the single most powerful predictor of their demographic behaviour. ’
Explain how changes in primary and secondary school education in Chad and Cambodia could have contributed to the fertility transitions [14]
In answering question 2, include one or more figure(s) in your answer (e.g. graphs or tables) that present relevant demographic data on fertility and related indicator(s). (See the guidance below**)
Marks indicated. Total 40 marks.
Notes on completing Exercise 1
• This assignment will help you improve your skills in describing and comparing complex, interrelated demographic, social, and economic processes.
• Keep your answers short and succinct. Using bullet points or a few sentences will be appropriate for some answers, whereas full text may be appropriate for developing your points in answering other questions.
• **You are strongly encouraged to consider whether presenting empirical, summarised data might strengthen your answer. For self-study to complement the lectures and seminars, you have been encouraged to explore online population and health data sources, including data repositories, data dashboards, interactive visualisations, etc. Consider how you might present indicators and summary statistics to assist you in writing more clearly and succinctly.
• Figures may take the form. of a graph or a table. You may include figures reproduced from papers, reports or online sources. Figures for the two countries can be combined or shown separately. Ensure that figures are correctly labelled (e.g. title, labels on the x and y axis). Ensure that each figure is given a number or letter and that you reference the figure in the text (e.g. Graph 1). You must provide the full citation of the source of the data and/or figure. The full source can be included as a footnote to the figure or as a separate list of figures after the bibliography/reference list.
• There is no word limit for this exercise, and it is up to you how you structure your answers and arrange the text and any figures (diagrams, tables, boxes). However, your answers to questions 1 and 2 must fit onto a maximum of four pages (A4) with a minimum font size of 12pt Times New Roman, standard/‘normal’ margins and page numbers.
• A bibliography/reference list and a list of data sources for any papers and data or figures you present can be included on an additional page(s).
• Include references to scientific papers where appropriate. You are asked to follow the guidance for students listed in the module outline and student handbook. These include the use of Harvard format for in-text references and bibliography.
• For top marks, feel free to search for relevant academic literature on migration statistics in the chosen countries, for example, via Google Scholar or for documents from international agencies or national statistical offices.
• Well-developed answers will demonstrate an understanding of how demographic changes in Chad and Cambodia relate to the processes and drivers of demographic transitions and the theories, issues, and critiques you have studied in the module. For example, the context of epidemiological and health transitions in relation to mortality declines. Draw on content from lectures, seminars, self-study readings, and exploration of online demographic data and materials. This includes the required reading from Tim Dyson’s book ‘Population and Development’ .
Submitting your work in the right format
• Ensure that your student ID is listed on the Word document.
• Ensure that your pages are numbered.
• We typically print out papers for marking. You are responsible for ensuring the document fits correctly if printed on A4 paper.
• Save your document as a Word document with your ID number in the file name.
• Submit your document via Turnitin on Blackboard.
Marking, deadlines, skills development
• Exercise 1 is worth 40% of the overall mark for this module.
• The marking scheme for Exercise 1 is out of a possible 40 marks, with the mark for each part indicated in brackets.
• Individual marks will be given back via Turnitin.
• Generic feedback on Exercise 1 will be given to the class.
• The deadline for this exercise is 3pm Monday 11th November 2024
If you have any questions about this exercise, please contact the module organiser, Professor Vicky Hosegood.
References
Dyson, T (2010) Population and Development: The Demographic Transition. Zed Books.
Cleland, J (2002) Education and future fertility trends, with special reference to mid-transitional countries. In
Proceedings of Expert Group Meeting on Completing the Fertility Transition, Population Division, United Nations.
https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd_egm_200203_backgroun dpaper_education_and_future_fertility_trends_cleland.pdf
UNFPA (2024a) World Population Dashboard Chad.https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/TD
UNFPA (2024b) World Population Dashboard Cambodia.https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/KH
UNFPA (2024) Interactive transparency portal for multiple indicators. https://www.unfpa.org/data/transparency- portal/