辅导 EAP115 – Model Essay (Extreme Heat)讲解 Python语言

English Language and Study Skills for Mathematics (EAP115) 2023-2024 Year 2 Semester 2

EAP115 – Model Essay (Extreme Heat)

Introduction

Extreme heat, long recognized as a problem in the scientific community, refers to periods that are much hotter than usual for the time and place where they happen (Casanueva et al., 2019).  Numerous studies have associated extreme heat with climate change and adverse effects on society, particularly public health. Horton et al. (2016) claimed extreme heat has been blamed for more than 100,000 deaths worldwide since the beginning of the 21st century. Protecting society from heat events is thus a crucial issue as they continue to increase globally. This essay will explain the problematic effect of extreme heat on public health and critically evaluate one potential solution.

Problem

Public health concerns are one of the most serious consequences of extreme heat. Health issues like cramps, heat stroke, and other disorders may be the result. Health risks posed by extreme heat can even be deadly, especially for the vulnerable. Bi et al. (2021) explained that extreme heat can make existing conditions and chronic illnesses worse and increase fatality. This situation could be further worsened by the ongoing increase in the severity of extreme heat in recent years. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (2022), since the 1960s, heat wave frequency and severity have been increasing in the United States, where the average number of heat waves has risen from 2 to 6 per year while the average length of the annual heat wave season has extended from around 20 days to over 70 days. The average length of individual heat waves increased from 3 to 4 days while the average temperature during heat waves increased by 0.5℉ to almost 2.5℉ above local averages (NOAA, 2022). Consequently, as Luber and McGeehin (2008) state, extreme heat now causes more deaths in the United States than hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and earthquakes combined.

Solution

The development and establishment of heat-health warning systems may mitigate public health problems caused by extreme heat. According to Casanueva et al. (2019), these systems usually consist of weather forecasts, methods to assess the weather-health relation, a system of graded alerts, and the communication of such alerts to both national and local decision makers as well as the general public. More specifically, these systems combine weather forecasting with public health action plans aimed at forewarning hot weather and reducing the health-related harm of heat waves (Casanueva et al., 2019). This works by creating a system of graded alerts, where depending on the severity of the heat, different actions are taken. Heatwave levels are given a grade according to intensity, duration, or a combination of both.  In Europe, for example, after a 2003 heat wave, many European countries began to implement such heat-health warning systems, and have seen positive results, especially in protecting the vulnerable (Casanueva et al., 2019). Matzarakis et al. (2020) found that, in Germany, after the enforcement of heat warning systems, hospital admissions of the elderly dropped significantly, and a decrease in heat-related mortalities was evident.

Evaluation

Advantage

The major advantage of the heat-health warning system is the likely benefits-to-costs ratio. Toloo et al. (2013) analysed such a system in Philadelphia and found that although the cost of running the system was approximately $210,000, its benefits could reach up to $468 million due to the number of lives saved. In addition, because heat-health warning systems integrate weather forecasting, systems can give early warnings of extreme heat far in advance. According to Ebi and Schmier (2015), heat-health warning systems may provide public health experts adequate time to include heat risk factors in regional risk management plans. Therefore, heat-health warning systems can provide early warning of extreme heat at a relatively low cost to protect and manage a wide range of heat-related health risks.

Disadvantage

The key disadvantage of the aforementioned potential solution is coverage. Existing heat health warning systems tend to focus on reducing mortality among groups vulnerable to heat, such as those working in confined conditions. In contrast, outdoor workers are less helped by current systems due to the lack of customized suggestions relating to specific occupational features (Morabito et al., 2019). Although some experimental frameworks have been proposed, these systems are still largely unable to monitor and ensure outdoor health and safety in real-time. Vanos, Vecillio, and Kjellstrom (2019) highlighted that many studies can only estimate on-site temperature levels, and often assume the availability of shade for outdoor workers. This assumption has two serious flaws: it underestimates the actual heat experienced, and it does not consider the impact of solar radiation, a crucial part of measuring heat stress (Vanos, Vecillio, and Kjellstrom (2019). Therefore, it seems that current systems are often inadequate for the protection of outdoor workers.

Conclusion

Heat-health warning systems were proposed and evaluated as a potential solution to public health problems stemming from extreme heat. While there are various ways to deal with public health problems caused by extreme heat, such warning systems may eventually prove more efficient. At present, the solution is still inadequate to reduce the heat-health risks for outdoor workers. However, this issue will likely be resolved as the system develops and matures. A systematic solution could be the answer as severe and frequent heat waves increase. Finally, the key is to address and solve climate challenges actively, which will remain a crucial topic of international importance in the future.

Reference List

Bi, P., Williams, S., Loughnan, M., Lloyd, G., Hansen, A., Kjellstrom, T., Dear, K. and Saniotis, A. (2011) ‘The Effects of Extreme Heat on Human Mortality and Morbidity in Australia: Implications for Public Health’, Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, 23(2), pp. 27S-36S. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/1010539510391644 (Accessed: 5 October 2023).

Casanueva, A., Burgstall, A., Kotlarski, S., Messeri, A., Morabito, M., Flouris, A.D., Nybo, L., Spirig, C. and Schwierz, C. (2019) ‘Overview of Existing Heat-Health Warning Systems in Europe’, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(15), pp.2657. Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6695887/ (Accessed: 5 October 2023).

Ebi, K.L. and Schmier, J.K. (2005) ‘A Stitch in Time: Improving Public Health Early Warning Systems for Extreme Weather Events’, Epidemiologic Reviews, 27(1), pp.115–121. Available at:  https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxi006   (Accessed: 5 October 2023).

Horton, R.M., Mankin, J.S., Lesk, C., Coffel, E. and Raymond, C. (2016) ‘A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events’, Current Climate Change Reports, 2(4), pp.242–259. Available at:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0042-x  (Accessed: 5 October 2023).

Luber, G. and McGeehin, M. (2008) ‘Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events’, American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 35(5), pp.429–435.  Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.021 (Accessed: 5 October 2023).

Matzarakis, A., Laschewski, G. and Muthers, S. (2020) ‘The Heat Health Warning System in Germany—Application and Warnings for 2005 to 2019’, Atmosphere, 11(2), p.170. Available at:  https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020170   (Accessed: 5 October 2023).

Morabito, M., Messeri, A., Noti, P., Casanueva, A., Crisci, A., Kotlarski, S., Orlandini, S., Schwierz, C., Spirig, C., Kingma, B.R.M., Flouris, A.D. and Nybo, L.  (2019) ‘An Occupational Heat–Health Warning System for Europe: The HEAT-SHIELD Platform’, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(16), p.2890. Available at: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16162890   (Accessed: 5 October 2023).

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (2022) Heat Wave Characteristics in the United States by Decade, 1961–2021. Available at: https://www.epa.gov/system/files/images/2022-07/heat-waves_figure1_2022.png (Accessed: 5 October 2023).

Toloo, G., FitzGerald, G., Aitken, P., Verrall, K. and K. Tong, S. (2013) ‘Evaluating the effectiveness of heat warning systems: systematic review of epidemiological evidence’, International Journal of Public Health, 58(5), pp.667–681. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-013-0465-2    (Accessed: 5 October 2023).

Vanos, J., Vecellio, D.J. and Kjellstrom, T. (2019) ‘Workplace heat exposure, health protection, and economic impacts: A case study in Canada’, American Journal of Industrial Medicine, 62(12), pp. 1024–1037. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/ajim.22966   (Accessed: 5 October 2023).

Source Integration Chart (SIC)

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