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Statistical and Predictive Modeling for Analytics I

Assignment # 3 (total 15 points)

This is the third in a set of 4 assignments for this course. Each assignment counts for 10% of the final grade. In this assignment we will be applying a machine learning technique namely classification.

Please respond to questions in a separate document and submit the document in Microsoft Word or PDF format through the provided Dropbox.. Please be sure to include the name of the exercise (Assignment # 3), your name and student ID. Please also be sure to list the number of the question and the answer clearly.

You will continue the practice exercise for Week 9 and complete the “On your own” part for this assignment. Please refer to this page for further instructions: http://htmlpreview.github.io/?https://github.com/andrewpbray/oiLabs-base-R/blob/master/inf_for_categorical_data/inf_for_categorical_data.html

The questions are provided below for your easy reference.

The question of atheism was asked by WIN-Gallup International in a similar survey that was conducted in 2005. (We assume here that sample sizes have remained the same.) Table 4 on page 13 of the report summarizes survey results from 2005 and 2012 for 39 countries.

1.Answer the following two questions using the inference function. As always, write out the hypotheses for any tests you conduct and outline the status of the conditions for inference.

a. Is there convincing evidence that Spain has seen a change in its atheism index between 2005 and 2012?

Hint: Create a new data set for respondents from Spain. Form confidence intervals for the true proportion of athiests in both years, and determine whether they overlap.

b. Is there convincing evidence that the United States has seen a change in its atheism index between 2005 and 2012?

[5 points]

2.If in fact there has been no change in the atheism index in the countries listed in Table 4, in how many of those countries would you expect to detect a change (at a significance level of 0.05) simply by chance?

Hint: Look in the textbook index under Type 1 error.

[5 points]

3.Suppose you’re hired by the local government to estimate the proportion of residents that attend a religious service on a weekly basis. According to the guidelines, the estimate must have a margin of error no greater than 1% with 95% confidence. You have no idea what to expect for p. How many people would you have to sample to ensure that you are within the guidelines?

Hint: Refer to your plot of the relationship between p and margin of error. Do not use the data set to answer this question.

[5 points]

Assignment # 3 Rubric

Question Exemplary

(5) Proficient

(3-4) Incomplete

(1-2) Incorrect or Unacceptable

(0-1)

1 Hypotheses are stated correctly. Proper datasets are created along with the appropriate confidence intervals and conclusions. Hypotheses are stated correctly. Proper datasets are created along with the appropriate confidence intervals and conclusions are mostly correct. Hypotheses are stated correctly. There are issues with the datasets or confidence intervals or conclusions. Hypotheses are incorrect and the tests are incomplete or missing.

2 Proper procedure is outlined and the countries are identified correctly. Proper procedure is outlined and the countries identified are mostly correct. Improper procedure or the countries are incorrect. Proper procedure or countries are missing are incorrect.

3 Proper procedure is outlined and the correct number of people is identified. This is completed without using the dataset. Mostly correct procedure is outlined and the number of people identified is close. This is completed without using the dataset. Mostly correct procedure is outlined but the number of people identified is incorrect. Improper procedure and incorrect number of people.

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