ENVM7512
Environmental Problem Solving
Semester 1, 2023
QUESTION 1
Systems dynamics models are often used to model complex systems with feedback loops. Imagine a fish population systems model that exhibits population growth with only a reinforcing feedback loop (i.e. positive feedback loop). What kind of population growth does this describe? Select one answer below.
a.Growth with overshoot.
b. S-shaped growth.
c.Oscillation.
d. Exponential growth.
QUESTION 2
Which of the following is a constructed performance measure for the following objective, "Maximize community satisfaction"?
a.The number of phone complaints from dissatisfied community members.
b. The number of satisfied community members.
c.The proportion of positive social media posts in the community per year.
d.Satisfaction scale (1-5, where 1 is low satisfaction and 5 is high satisfaction).
QUESTION 3
What is the initial framework for evaluating trade-offs? Select one answer below.
a.A consequence table.
b. A means-end diagram.
c.A trade-off table.
d. A strategy table.
QUESTION 4
Which of the following should be considered an objective? Select one answer below.
a. Implement prescribed burning.
b. Minimise detrimental mine tailings.
c. Spray
d. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 3,000 tonnes per annum.
QUESTION 5
What is NOT a type of objective in structured decision-making? Select one answer below.
a.Strategic objective.
b. Process objective.
c.Functional objective.
d. Means objective.
QUESTION 6
What bias occurs when we rely on specifics to make a decision and ignore general statistical information that is more probable?
a.Anchoring bias.
b. Confirmation bias.
c.Overconfidence bias.
d. Base-rate neglect bias.
QUESTION 7
Which of the following is a conceptual model that helps us identify leverage points in the system?
a.Strategy table.
b. Bayesian Belief Network.
c.Influence diagram.
d. Habitat model.
QUESTION 8
What tool is helpful for identifying objectives?
a. Menu board.
b. Swing weighting table.
c.Means-ends diagram.
d. None of the answers.
QUESTION 9
Which analysis is used to assess the costs and benefits of an alternative when the benefits are NOT in monetary terms? Select one answer below.
a. Cost-effectiveness analysis.
b. Cost-benefit analysis.
c.None of the answers.
d. Cost analysis.
QUESTION 10
What is a type of uncertainty that has negative consequences?
a. Maxi-Min.
b. Expert Elicitation.
c.Risk.
d. Value of information.
QUESTION 11
Please use this space if you believe there is missing or incorrect information that impacted your ability to answer any question. Please state which questions this is related to For the toolbar, press ALT+F10 (PC) or ALT+FN+F10 (Mac).
Question 11. For the table below, assume you are a manager of a large-scale wind energy farm.
You have three possible alternatives: 1) run all of the wind turbines; 2) run half of the wind turbines, or 3) run a quarter of the wind turbines.
The consequence of interest is the number of threatened birds that are killed by wind turbines.
As the decision maker, you are assessing the three alternatives against three bird migration scenarios over the next year: high abundance of birds, moderate abundance of birds, and low abundance of birds migrating through the wind energy farm.
You do not know the likelihood of each of these bird migration scenarios occurring, so you will need to make a decision in the face of uncertainty. If you are a risk-averse decision maker, which alternative would you choose, and why? (8 marks)
Question 12. What are the advantages of a Delphi elicitation over simply polling the top experts in a field? Use examples and/or plots to illustrate your answer (12 marks)
Question 13. Explain the issues with using targets in environmental decisions and how should they be considered if they are incorporated in a decision? Include examples to illustrate your points. (10 marks)
Question 14. Uncertainty is an important component of environmental problems. One way to articulate uncertainty is as hypotheses. The below table shows the expected chance of success of translocating a possum species resulting from two different translocation sites and two hypotheses about how the possum reproduction is impacted by the presence of certain fruit trees. The objective of the managers is to maximise the probability of survival of the possum population. Using the information contained in the table, calculate the value of resolving the uncertainty in the importance of fruit trees (show your working). To reduce this uncertainty monitoring would be required at a cost of $100,000, and managers are willing to pay $65,000 for each 0.1 increment increase in survival probability for the possum. Based on the value of information you calculated, would you recommend monitoring be implemented? Briefly state why. (20 marks)
Table for Question 14:
Question 15. Below is a consequence table for a theoretical environmental problem. A regional government has to decide whether to regulate an emerging seaweed industry in their region. The government would like to maximize the benefit they receive through providing revenue and jobs to the local economy, minimising beef emissions of local cattle industry while minimizing the impacts on biodiversity. Simplify the consequence table, then using the swing weighting results provided and the simplified consequence table, calculate the expected utility of each alternative (show your working). Based on your calculations which alternative would you recommend to the community and why? (30 marks)
Table for Question 15: