辅导 Risk Management in Engineering (49006) Assessment Task 3 – Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decis

Risk Management in Engineering (49006)

Assessment Task 3 – Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Making

Specification:

Objective:

Introduction:

To have a thorough understanding of what constitutes engineering risk management and how theories, concepts, methods, etc. can be employed in industrial practice, this assignment provides the opportunity for students to put their knowledge into practice by implementing the quantitative risk assessment and risk-based decision making methods in the case study investigated in Assessments 1 or 2.

Instructions:

1.   Decide a good title for your work considering your case study. Title should accurately reflect the report’s main idea and its content.

2.   Structure your report in an appropriate manner to include sections for introduction, case  study  overview,  implementation  of  techniques  and  results  analyses,  risk evaluation and treatments, discussion and sensitivity analysis, and conclusions.

3.  Write  an  introduction  including  contextualisation,  topic  importance,  case  study introduction, and objectives.

4.  You need to follow the order of the techniques in your report: FT, ET, BT, and risk- based decision making.

5.   Implement the techniques in the case study step by step and present the results. Analyse the results and highlight major findings. Tables and figures should be high- quality with adequate explanation:

•    Develop  an FT for the case study, including a table to show events and their acronyms and failure probabilities, draw the tree using software, and provide quantifications for the top event likelihood.

•    Develop an  ET for the case study, including a table to show events and their acronyms and failure probabilities, draw the tree using software, and provide quantifications for scenarios and consequences.

•    Connect FT and ET and create a BT, estimate the risk for the main hazard.

•    Convert BT to a BN model using GeNIe or other platforms.

•    Follow your case study, incorporate some evidence into your BN, and report the posterior probabilities. Or report the most probable scenario leading to the main hazard and consequences.

•    Propose some risk reduction strategies and select the best option using one risk- based decision making technique.

6.   Please note:

•    Hand drawing trees are not accepted.

•    Copying and pasting trees from the literature are not accepted.

•    If not using Word for drawing trees, you MUST provide the drawing files along with your submission.

7.   Discuss the results and do a sensitivity analysis to make sure the results are reliable.

8.  Write a conclusion of what has been done for what purpose and what findings are.

9.  All content must be written without grammatical errors and must be fully referenced. Include references at the end that are consistently aligned with IEEE style.

Marking Criteria